Buttonwood

　　金融市場

　　Where there s money, there s risk

　　哪里有貨幣，哪里就有風(fēng)險

　　Events in America show that no asset iscopper-bottomed

　　在美國發(fā)生的事情顯示出沒有資產(chǎn)是毫無風(fēng)險的。

　　A GOVERNMENT with debt denominated in its own currency need never default, or so thetheory goes.

　　一個擁有以本幣為計量單位的債務(wù)的政府需要的是永不違約，大概這個理論是可以實現(xiàn)的。

　　It can simply print more money to pay off the debt.

　　它能簡單地印刷更多的貨幣來支付它的債務(wù)。

　　In practice, however, countries dodefault on local-currency debt: six have done so in the past 15 years, including Jamaica,Russia and Ecuador.

　　但是實際上，國家不履行本國貨幣債務(wù)：在過去十五年已經(jīng)有六個國家這樣做了，包括牙買加，俄羅斯和厄瓜多爾。

　　Before this week s budget deal, markets had feared that America could join the list, if only ina technical sense.

　　在本周的預(yù)算計劃前，市場已經(jīng)擔(dān)心美國會加入這個名單，但愿在技術(shù)層面上。

　　From the point of view of a creditor, however, the ability of a government to print money isof little comfort if the result is higher inflation or currency depreciation.

　　然而，從一個債權(quán)人的觀點來看，一個政府的印鈔能力是沒有用的，如果結(jié)果是對國內(nèi)投資者更高的通貨膨脹率或者對國外投資者的貨幣貶值。

　　Investors who bought Treasury bonds in 1946, when yields were around current levels, didnot suffer a formal default.

　　在1946年國庫券年收益率與現(xiàn)在的水平差不多的時候，購買它的投資者沒有遭受正式違約。

　　But over the following 35 years they lost money in real terms at a rate of 2% a year.

　　但是在后續(xù)的三十五年他們以每年2%的利率實際上虧錢。

　　The cumulative real loss was 91%.

　　累積的實際損失是91%。

　　By that standard, Greek creditors, who recently suffered a 50% loss via default, were lucky.

　　跟據(jù)這個標準，最近因為違約損失50%的希臘債權(quán)人是幸運的。

　　Given this baleful history, the idea that sovereign debt is risk-free is puzzling.

　　考慮到這個可怕的歷史，認為政府債務(wù)無風(fēng)險的觀點是令人費解的。

　　When it comes to the purchasing power of an investor s money, what does it matter if theloss comes in the form of a formal default or erosion in real terms?

　　那么當(dāng)提到投資者資金實際購買力時，如果損失以正式違約或者實際侵蝕的形式發(fā)生時，這有什么差別呢?

　　The answer to that conundrum may be that default happens suddenly, whereas inflationand depreciation are slower, giving investors more time to adjust by demanding higherinterest rates to compensate for their losses.

　　對于這個難題的答案可能是違約突然發(fā)生，然而通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值是緩慢的，這給了投資者更多的時間去調(diào)整，通過要求更高的利率去賠償他們的損失。

　　This is particularly true in the case of short-term debt, such as Treasury bills; inflation isunlikely to do serious damage to a portfolio in the course of a few months.

　　這個在短期債務(wù)中更有現(xiàn)實意義，如國庫券;通貨膨脹極少有可能在幾個月的過程中對投資組合產(chǎn)生嚴重的損害。

　　Twenty years ago there was much talk of bond vigilantes who would respond toirresponsible fiscal policies by forcing up the interest rates on government debt.

　　二十年前,有許多關(guān)于通過拋售國庫券來要求更高年收益和約束美國政策制定者的國際投資者的事跡,他們通過迫使提高政府債務(wù)利率來應(yīng)對不負責(zé)任的財政政策。

　　With the bond vigilantes on the prowl, any short-term real loss suffered by investors wouldbe recouped in the form of higher real rates as the government s debt was refinanced.

　　隨著他們伺機而動，投資者遭受的任何短期實際損失會由于政府債務(wù)再籌資而以較高的實際利率的形式收回來。

　　But by buying bonds in the name of quantitative easing, central banks are influencinginterest rates of all maturities these days.

　　通過以量化寬松的名義購買債券，中央銀行這些日子在影響所有的到期利率。

　　By holding down bond yields, the authorities are employing a policy some have dubbedfinancial repression, in which real returns on government debt are reduced.

　　通過壓制住債券的年收益率，管理者運用一項政策引入金融抑制，由此政府債務(wù)的實際回報減少了。

　　The idea is to make investors buy riskier assets, such as equities and corporate bonds.

　　這個構(gòu)想是讓投資者購買有風(fēng)險的資產(chǎn)，例如股票和公司債券。

　　In effect, the bond vigilantes have been neutered.

　　實際上，債券市場秩序維護者們保持了中立。

　　One way of protecting the real value of investors bond holdings is to buy inflation-linkeddebt.

　　保護投資者持有的債券實際價值的方法之一是購買通脹掛鉤債券。

　　The repayment value and interest payments on such bonds are normally tied to a well-knowninflation index.

　　關(guān)于這類債券的回報價值和利息支付一般地說是與一個著名的通貨膨脹指數(shù)相聯(lián)系的。

　　But even these bonds may not be completely risk-free; it is possible to imagine that futuregovernments may find ways to redefine the inflation measure for their own benefit.

　　但是即使是這些債券也不是完全無風(fēng)險的;很有可能可以這樣想象未來政府可能為了他們自己的利益找到方法去重新定義通貨膨脹措施。

　　And foreign buyers of inflation-linked bonds are still at risk from currency depreciation.

　　并且通脹掛鉤債券的外國購買者仍然面臨來自貨幣貶值的風(fēng)險。

　　Inflation-linked bonds are extremely attractive to pension funds, since they are a neatmatch for the funds liabilities.

　　由于通脹掛鉤債券與養(yǎng)老基金的責(zé)任非常匹配，它們對養(yǎng)老基金來說非常有吸引力。

　　So such bonds are snapped up quickly and tend to trade on low real yields; sometimes, thoseyields are even negative.

　　所以這些債券很快被搶購一空并且有不正當(dāng)利用低實際收益率的趨勢;有些時候，這些獲益率甚至是消極的。

　　An asset is hardly risk-free if it guarantees a real loss.

　　一個資產(chǎn)很難無風(fēng)險如果它保證實際損失。

　　The concept of a risk-free asset is quite useful in finance.

　　無風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的概念在金融上是非常有用的。

　　For a start, it provides the base from which other assets can be priced.

　　首先，它提供了其他資產(chǎn)的定價基準。

　　Corporate borrowers pay an interest premium over the risk-free rate; equities have offered ahigher long-term return than government bonds to reflect their higher risk.

　　公司融資者在無風(fēng)險率上支付利息費用;股票提供一個比政府債券更能反映他們的高風(fēng)險的長期回報。

　　But what is the true risk-free rate?

　　但是什么是真正的無風(fēng)險率呢?

　　Multinational companies can borrow at a lower rate of interest than some governments:compare Apple with Greece, for example.

　　跨國公司可以以比一些政府更低的利率借款：例如，比較蘋果公司和希臘。

　　And although America is the world s biggest economy, its government does not borrow at thecheapest rate on the planet:

　　盡管美國是世界上最大的經(jīng)濟體，它的政府并不以這個星球上最便宜的利率借錢;

　　Japanese yields have been lower for many years and German long-term yields are nowsignificantly below those of Treasuries.

　　日本的年收益率已經(jīng)愈來愈低很多年了而且德國長期年收益率現(xiàn)在很明顯的比國庫券低。

　　Where America does have a substantial advantage is that it borrows in the world sreserve currencythe dollarand that its debt market is by far the most liquid.

　　美國實質(zhì)上占優(yōu)勢的地方是它借的是世界儲備貨幣并且它的債券市場是目前流動性最好的。

　　The result is that Treasury bills, in particular, play a vital role in the system as cashequivalents and as collateral for short-term loans and derivative contracts.

　　這樣的結(jié)果是，尤其是，國庫券作為現(xiàn)金等價物和作為短期貸款和衍生品合同作的擔(dān)保物在這個系統(tǒng)里起了一個至關(guān)重要的作用。

　　Treasury bills are seen as risk-free in this context in that they are instantly and universallyacceptable to all participants in the system.

　　國庫券因為它們對這個系統(tǒng)里所有參與者迅速和廣泛的接受而在這個環(huán)境里被看為是無風(fēng)險的。

　　They are the oil that lubricates the global machinery of finance.

　　他們是潤滑全球金融機器的油。

　　That was the real risk of the latest stand-off: not that America would not pay its bills, which itcould easily afford to, but that the system would grind to a halt.

　　這個才是最新平衡的真正風(fēng)險：不是美國不付它自己很容易支付的賬，而是這個系統(tǒng)會慢慢停滯下來。

　　詞語解釋

　　1.pay off 付清

　　Pay off your credit cards every month.

　　記得每月還清你的信用卡。

　　Pay off all consumer debt before you start payingdown the house.

　　在你開始分期還款前，先還清你所有的消費債務(wù)。

　　2.if only 只要;但愿

　　If only you could just see it.

　　只要你能看到這一點。

　　Prosperity could be guaranteed, if only it can be managed right.

　　繁榮興旺是可以被保證的，只要它能夠被正確地管理。

　　3.such as 例如;譬如;諸如

　　What about future steps such as euro bonds?

　　諸如歐元聯(lián)盟之類的未來計劃怎樣?

　　Imaginary problems such as these are usually hiding real ones.

　　像這樣的臆想的問題通常隱藏真實性的。

　　4.respond to 順從，服從;響應(yīng)

　　Never respond to requests for personal or account information online .

　　絕對不要響應(yīng)那些在線要你提供個人或賬戶信息的請求。

　　A spokesman didn t respond to requests for comment.

　　該公司一位發(fā)言人沒有回應(yīng)記者的置評請求。

　　Buttonwood

　　金融市場

　　Where there s money, there s risk

　　哪里有貨幣，哪里就有風(fēng)險

　　Events in America show that no asset iscopper-bottomed

　　在美國發(fā)生的事情顯示出沒有資產(chǎn)是毫無風(fēng)險的。

　　A GOVERNMENT with debt denominated in its own currency need never default, or so thetheory goes.

　　一個擁有以本幣為計量單位的債務(wù)的政府需要的是永不違約，大概這個理論是可以實現(xiàn)的。

　　It can simply print more money to pay off the debt.

　　它能簡單地印刷更多的貨幣來支付它的債務(wù)。

　　In practice, however, countries dodefault on local-currency debt: six have done so in the past 15 years, including Jamaica,Russia and Ecuador.

　　但是實際上，國家不履行本國貨幣債務(wù)：在過去十五年已經(jīng)有六個國家這樣做了，包括牙買加，俄羅斯和厄瓜多爾。

　　Before this week s budget deal, markets had feared that America could join the list, if only ina technical sense.

　　在本周的預(yù)算計劃前，市場已經(jīng)擔(dān)心美國會加入這個名單，但愿在技術(shù)層面上。

　　From the point of view of a creditor, however, the ability of a government to print money isof little comfort if the result is higher inflation or currency depreciation.

　　然而，從一個債權(quán)人的觀點來看，一個政府的印鈔能力是沒有用的，如果結(jié)果是對國內(nèi)投資者更高的通貨膨脹率或者對國外投資者的貨幣貶值。

　　Investors who bought Treasury bonds in 1946, when yields were around current levels, didnot suffer a formal default.

　　在1946年國庫券年收益率與現(xiàn)在的水平差不多的時候，購買它的投資者沒有遭受正式違約。

　　But over the following 35 years they lost money in real terms at a rate of 2% a year.

　　但是在后續(xù)的三十五年他們以每年2%的利率實際上虧錢。

　　The cumulative real loss was 91%.

　　累積的實際損失是91%。

　　By that standard, Greek creditors, who recently suffered a 50% loss via default, were lucky.

　　跟據(jù)這個標準，最近因為違約損失50%的希臘債權(quán)人是幸運的。

　　Given this baleful history, the idea that sovereign debt is risk-free is puzzling.

　　考慮到這個可怕的歷史，認為政府債務(wù)無風(fēng)險的觀點是令人費解的。

　　When it comes to the purchasing power of an investor s money, what does it matter if theloss comes in the form of a formal default or erosion in real terms?

　　那么當(dāng)提到投資者資金實際購買力時，如果損失以正式違約或者實際侵蝕的形式發(fā)生時，這有什么差別呢?

　　The answer to that conundrum may be that default happens suddenly, whereas inflationand depreciation are slower, giving investors more time to adjust by demanding higherinterest rates to compensate for their losses.

　　對于這個難題的答案可能是違約突然發(fā)生，然而通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值是緩慢的，這給了投資者更多的時間去調(diào)整，通過要求更高的利率去賠償他們的損失。

　　This is particularly true in the case of short-term debt, such as Treasury bills; inflation isunlikely to do serious damage to a portfolio in the course of a few months.

　　這個在短期債務(wù)中更有現(xiàn)實意義，如國庫券;通貨膨脹極少有可能在幾個月的過程中對投資組合產(chǎn)生嚴重的損害。

　　Twenty years ago there was much talk of bond vigilantes who would respond toirresponsible fiscal policies by forcing up the interest rates on government debt.

　　二十年前,有許多關(guān)于通過拋售國庫券來要求更高年收益和約束美國政策制定者的國際投資者的事跡,他們通過迫使提高政府債務(wù)利率來應(yīng)對不負責(zé)任的財政政策。

　　With the bond vigilantes on the prowl, any short-term real loss suffered by investors wouldbe recouped in the form of higher real rates as the government s debt was refinanced.

　　隨著他們伺機而動，投資者遭受的任何短期實際損失會由于政府債務(wù)再籌資而以較高的實際利率的形式收回來。

　　But by buying bonds in the name of quantitative easing, central banks are influencinginterest rates of all maturities these days.

　　通過以量化寬松的名義購買債券，中央銀行這些日子在影響所有的到期利率。

　　By holding down bond yields, the authorities are employing a policy some have dubbedfinancial repression, in which real returns on government debt are reduced.

　　通過壓制住債券的年收益率，管理者運用一項政策引入金融抑制，由此政府債務(wù)的實際回報減少了。

　　The idea is to make investors buy riskier assets, such as equities and corporate bonds.

　　這個構(gòu)想是讓投資者購買有風(fēng)險的資產(chǎn)，例如股票和公司債券。

　　In effect, the bond vigilantes have been neutered.

　　實際上，債券市場秩序維護者們保持了中立。

　　One way of protecting the real value of investors bond holdings is to buy inflation-linkeddebt.

　　保護投資者持有的債券實際價值的方法之一是購買通脹掛鉤債券。

　　The repayment value and interest payments on such bonds are normally tied to a well-knowninflation index.

　　關(guān)于這類債券的回報價值和利息支付一般地說是與一個著名的通貨膨脹指數(shù)相聯(lián)系的。

　　But even these bonds may not be completely risk-free; it is possible to imagine that futuregovernments may find ways to redefine the inflation measure for their own benefit.

　　但是即使是這些債券也不是完全無風(fēng)險的;很有可能可以這樣想象未來政府可能為了他們自己的利益找到方法去重新定義通貨膨脹措施。

　　And foreign buyers of inflation-linked bonds are still at risk from currency depreciation.

　　并且通脹掛鉤債券的外國購買者仍然面臨來自貨幣貶值的風(fēng)險。

　　Inflation-linked bonds are extremely attractive to pension funds, since they are a neatmatch for the funds liabilities.

　　由于通脹掛鉤債券與養(yǎng)老基金的責(zé)任非常匹配，它們對養(yǎng)老基金來說非常有吸引力。

　　So such bonds are snapped up quickly and tend to trade on low real yields; sometimes, thoseyields are even negative.

　　所以這些債券很快被搶購一空并且有不正當(dāng)利用低實際收益率的趨勢;有些時候，這些獲益率甚至是消極的。

　　An asset is hardly risk-free if it guarantees a real loss.

　　一個資產(chǎn)很難無風(fēng)險如果它保證實際損失。

　　The concept of a risk-free asset is quite useful in finance.

　　無風(fēng)險資產(chǎn)的概念在金融上是非常有用的。

　　For a start, it provides the base from which other assets can be priced.

　　首先，它提供了其他資產(chǎn)的定價基準。

　　Corporate borrowers pay an interest premium over the risk-free rate; equities have offered ahigher long-term return than government bonds to reflect their higher risk.

　　公司融資者在無風(fēng)險率上支付利息費用;股票提供一個比政府債券更能反映他們的高風(fēng)險的長期回報。

　　But what is the true risk-free rate?

　　但是什么是真正的無風(fēng)險率呢?

　　Multinational companies can borrow at a lower rate of interest than some governments:compare Apple with Greece, for example.

　　跨國公司可以以比一些政府更低的利率借款：例如，比較蘋果公司和希臘。

　　And although America is the world s biggest economy, its government does not borrow at thecheapest rate on the planet:

　　盡管美國是世界上最大的經(jīng)濟體，它的政府并不以這個星球上最便宜的利率借錢;

　　Japanese yields have been lower for many years and German long-term yields are nowsignificantly below those of Treasuries.

　　日本的年收益率已經(jīng)愈來愈低很多年了而且德國長期年收益率現(xiàn)在很明顯的比國庫券低。

　　Where America does have a substantial advantage is that it borrows in the world sreserve currencythe dollarand that its debt market is by far the most liquid.

　　美國實質(zhì)上占優(yōu)勢的地方是它借的是世界儲備貨幣并且它的債券市場是目前流動性最好的。

　　The result is that Treasury bills, in particular, play a vital role in the system as cashequivalents and as collateral for short-term loans and derivative contracts.

　　這樣的結(jié)果是，尤其是，國庫券作為現(xiàn)金等價物和作為短期貸款和衍生品合同作的擔(dān)保物在這個系統(tǒng)里起了一個至關(guān)重要的作用。

　　Treasury bills are seen as risk-free in this context in that they are instantly and universallyacceptable to all participants in the system.

　　國庫券因為它們對這個系統(tǒng)里所有參與者迅速和廣泛的接受而在這個環(huán)境里被看為是無風(fēng)險的。

　　They are the oil that lubricates the global machinery of finance.

　　他們是潤滑全球金融機器的油。

　　That was the real risk of the latest stand-off: not that America would not pay its bills, which itcould easily afford to, but that the system would grind to a halt.

　　這個才是最新平衡的真正風(fēng)險：不是美國不付它自己很容易支付的賬，而是這個系統(tǒng)會慢慢停滯下來。

　　詞語解釋

　　1.pay off 付清

　　Pay off your credit cards every month.

　　記得每月還清你的信用卡。

　　Pay off all consumer debt before you start payingdown the house.

　　在你開始分期還款前，先還清你所有的消費債務(wù)。

　　2.if only 只要;但愿

　　If only you could just see it.

　　只要你能看到這一點。

　　Prosperity could be guaranteed, if only it can be managed right.

　　繁榮興旺是可以被保證的，只要它能夠被正確地管理。

　　3.such as 例如;譬如;諸如

　　What about future steps such as euro bonds?

　　諸如歐元聯(lián)盟之類的未來計劃怎樣?

　　Imaginary problems such as these are usually hiding real ones.

　　像這樣的臆想的問題通常隱藏真實性的。

　　4.respond to 順從，服從;響應(yīng)

　　Never respond to requests for personal or account information online .

　　絕對不要響應(yīng)那些在線要你提供個人或賬戶信息的請求。

　　A spokesman didn t respond to requests for comment.

　　該公司一位發(fā)言人沒有回應(yīng)記者的置評請求。