India in trouble

　　印度身陷困境

　　The reckoning

　　最后審判日

　　Why India is particularly vulnerable to theturbulence rattling emerging markets

　　為什么印度新興市場特別容易受到震蕩

　　ON THE morning of August 17th most of India s economic policymakers gathered in theprime minister s house in Delhi.

　　8月17日上午，大多數(shù)印度經(jīng)濟政策制定者聚集在德里的總理府邸。

　　They were there to launch an official economic history of 1981-97, a period which included thebalance-of-payments crisis of 1991.

　　他們聚集那里為了發(fā)布一項官方的1981年到1997年間的經(jīng)濟史，這個時期包括1991年的國際收支危機。

　　The mood was tense.

　　氛圍十分緊張。

　　India, said Manmohan Singh, theprime minister, faced very difficult circumstances.

　　總理曼莫漢辛格說，印度面臨十分困難的狀況。

　　Does history repeat itself? asked Duvvuri Subbarao, the outgoing head of the Reserve Bankof India.

　　歷史重演了嗎?即將退休的印度央行行長蘇巴拉奧問道，

　　As if we learn nothing from one crisis to another?

　　好像我們沒有從一次經(jīng)濟危機到另一次經(jīng)濟危機中什么都沒有學(xué)到?

　　The day before Indian financial markets had had their rockiest session for many years.

　　之前，印度金融市場最困難的時期持續(xù)了很多年了。

　　The rupee sank and stockmarkets tumbled.

　　盧比貶值，股市坍塌。

　　Money-market rates rose.

　　貨幣市場匯率上升。

　　The shares of banks thought to be either full of bad debts or short of deposit funding fellsharply.

　　人們認(rèn)為滿是壞賬或者缺少存款資金的銀行股份迅速貶值。

　　The sell-off had been made worse by new capital controls introduced on August 14th inresponse to incipient signs of capital flight.

　　為應(yīng)對早期資金外流現(xiàn)象，8月14日實施的資本控制使得證券拋售變得更糟糕。

　　They reduce the amount Indian residents and firms can take out of the country.

　　他們減少了印度居民和公司可以帶出國家的資金量。

　　Foreign investors took fright, fearful that India might freeze their funds too, much asMalaysia did during its crisis in 1998.

　　外國投資者受到了驚嚇，擔(dān)心印度也會凍結(jié)他們的資金，就像馬來西亞1998年經(jīng)濟危機的時候采取的措施一樣。

　　India s authorities have since ruled that out.

　　印度當(dāng)局后來排除了那種可能。

　　But markets keep sliding.

　　但是市場持續(xù)下滑。

　　On August 20th the RBI said it would intervene to try to calm bond yields.

　　8月20日，印度央行稱會試著穩(wěn)定債券收益率。

　　The rupee has dropped to over 64 to the dollar, an all-time low and 13% below its level threemonths ago.

　　盧比已貶值至一美元64盧比，價值空前的低，比三個月前水平低13%。

　　It is widely agreed the country is in its worst economic bind since 1991.

　　人們普遍認(rèn)為，這個國家處在自從1991年以來最糟糕的經(jīng)濟窘境中。

　　India is not being singled out.

　　印度不是被單挑出來的。

　　Since May, when the Federal Reserve first said it might slow the pace of its assetpurchases,investors have begun adjusting to a world without ultra-cheap money.

　　從五月份以來，當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲首次表明會放慢其資產(chǎn)收購的進程時，投資者已經(jīng)開始適應(yīng)沒有超低息政策的世界。

　　There has been a great withdrawal of funds from emerging markets, where mostcurrencies have fallen by 5-15% against the dollar in the past three months.

　　大量資金從新興市場撤出，這些市場過去的三個月盧比對美元匯率下降了5-15%。

　　Bond yields have risen from Brazil to Thailand.

　　債券收益從巴西上升到了泰國水平。

　　Some governments have intervened.

　　一些政府介入了。

　　On July 11th Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate to bolster its currency.

　　7月11日，印度尼西亞提升了其基準(zhǔn)利率來加強貨幣。

　　On August 21st its president said he would soon announce further measures to ensurestability.

　　8月21日，印尼總統(tǒng)表明不久就會宣布進一步的措施來確保經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定。

　　India, Asia s third-biggest economy, is more vulnerable than most, however.

　　印度，亞洲第三大經(jīng)濟，卻比大多數(shù)國家更脆弱。

　　Economic news has disappointed for two years, with growth falling to 4-5%, half the rateseen during the 2003-08 boom.

　　經(jīng)濟資訊讓人們失望了兩年了，經(jīng)濟增長率降到4-5%，其中一半的經(jīng)濟增長率還是在2003-08年經(jīng)濟蓬勃時期發(fā)展起來的。

　　It may fall further.

　　經(jīng)濟增長率還會進一步下跌。

　　Consumer-price inflation remains stubborn at 10%.

　　消費物價上漲仍保持在10%。

　　A drive by Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, to push through a package ofreforms and free big industrial projects from red tape has not worked.

　　由財務(wù)部長帕拉尼亞潘奇丹巴南為從繁文縟節(jié)中通過一系列改革和免費的大型工業(yè)項目而發(fā)起的運動還沒有效果。

　　An election is due by May 2023, adding to uncertainty.

　　選舉在2023年5月，也增加了不確定性。

　　India s dependence on foreign capital is also high and has risen sharply.

　　印度對外資的依賴程度也很高并且上升很迅速。

　　The current-account deficit soared to almost 7% of GDP at the end of 2023, although it isexpected to be 4-5% this year.

　　往來賬戶逆差2023年底急升至將近GDP的7%，雖然今年預(yù)期逆差是4-5%。

　　External borrowing has not risen by much relative to GDPthe ratio stands at 21%todaybut debt has become more short-term, and therefore riskier.

　　外債相對于GDP沒有上升很多現(xiàn)在比例在21%但是債務(wù)更多是短期的，因此更危險。

　　Total financing needs are $250 billion over the next year.

　　財政需求總額下一年是2.5億美元。

　　India s reserves are $279 billion, giving a coverage ratio of 1.1 times.

　　印度的儲備是2.79億，是償還能力系數(shù)的1.1倍。

　　That has fallen sharply from over three times in 2007-08 and leaves India looking weakerthan many of its peers.

　　2007-08這個儲備下降了3倍多，也使印度看起來比許多同樣的國家看起來更弱。

　　It is therefore vital that foreign equity investors stay put.

　　因此，外資股權(quán)投資者留在原處很重要。

　　They own perhaps $200 billion of shares at current prices.

　　按現(xiàn)時價格計算，他們可能擁有2億美元的股份。

　　They have sold only about $3 billion since May, but if they head for the exit India would haveno defence.

　　自從五月份以來，他們只賣了大約3百萬股份，但是如果他們撤出，印度將失去所有的防御。

　　This is not a repeat of 1991.

　　這不是1991年的一種重復(fù)。

　　When India last had a crisis Boris Yeltsin was about to stand on a tank in Moscow and Nirvanawas hitting the big time.

　　當(dāng)印度最后一次經(jīng)濟危機的時候，鮑里斯葉利欽在莫斯科正要上臺，涅槃樂隊正出名。

　　Things have changed in financial terms, too.

　　融資條件也發(fā)生了變化。

　　Back then India had a fixed exchange rate, which the state almost bankrupted itself tryingto defendit had to fly gold to the Bank of England in return for a loan.

　　當(dāng)時，印度有固定匯率，這是即將破產(chǎn)的國家努力維護的，為了還貸款，它必須空運黃金給英格蘭銀行。

　　India in trouble

　　印度身陷困境

　　The reckoning

　　最后審判日

　　Why India is particularly vulnerable to theturbulence rattling emerging markets

　　為什么印度新興市場特別容易受到震蕩

　　ON THE morning of August 17th most of India s economic policymakers gathered in theprime minister s house in Delhi.

　　8月17日上午，大多數(shù)印度經(jīng)濟政策制定者聚集在德里的總理府邸。

　　They were there to launch an official economic history of 1981-97, a period which included thebalance-of-payments crisis of 1991.

　　他們聚集那里為了發(fā)布一項官方的1981年到1997年間的經(jīng)濟史，這個時期包括1991年的國際收支危機。

　　The mood was tense.

　　氛圍十分緊張。

　　India, said Manmohan Singh, theprime minister, faced very difficult circumstances.

　　總理曼莫漢辛格說，印度面臨十分困難的狀況。

　　Does history repeat itself? asked Duvvuri Subbarao, the outgoing head of the Reserve Bankof India.

　　歷史重演了嗎?即將退休的印度央行行長蘇巴拉奧問道，

　　As if we learn nothing from one crisis to another?

　　好像我們沒有從一次經(jīng)濟危機到另一次經(jīng)濟危機中什么都沒有學(xué)到?

　　The day before Indian financial markets had had their rockiest session for many years.

　　之前，印度金融市場最困難的時期持續(xù)了很多年了。

　　The rupee sank and stockmarkets tumbled.

　　盧比貶值，股市坍塌。

　　Money-market rates rose.

　　貨幣市場匯率上升。

　　The shares of banks thought to be either full of bad debts or short of deposit funding fellsharply.

　　人們認(rèn)為滿是壞賬或者缺少存款資金的銀行股份迅速貶值。

　　The sell-off had been made worse by new capital controls introduced on August 14th inresponse to incipient signs of capital flight.

　　為應(yīng)對早期資金外流現(xiàn)象，8月14日實施的資本控制使得證券拋售變得更糟糕。

　　They reduce the amount Indian residents and firms can take out of the country.

　　他們減少了印度居民和公司可以帶出國家的資金量。

　　Foreign investors took fright, fearful that India might freeze their funds too, much asMalaysia did during its crisis in 1998.

　　外國投資者受到了驚嚇，擔(dān)心印度也會凍結(jié)他們的資金，就像馬來西亞1998年經(jīng)濟危機的時候采取的措施一樣。

　　India s authorities have since ruled that out.

　　印度當(dāng)局后來排除了那種可能。

　　But markets keep sliding.

　　但是市場持續(xù)下滑。

　　On August 20th the RBI said it would intervene to try to calm bond yields.

　　8月20日，印度央行稱會試著穩(wěn)定債券收益率。

　　The rupee has dropped to over 64 to the dollar, an all-time low and 13% below its level threemonths ago.

　　盧比已貶值至一美元64盧比，價值空前的低，比三個月前水平低13%。

　　It is widely agreed the country is in its worst economic bind since 1991.

　　人們普遍認(rèn)為，這個國家處在自從1991年以來最糟糕的經(jīng)濟窘境中。

　　India is not being singled out.

　　印度不是被單挑出來的。

　　Since May, when the Federal Reserve first said it might slow the pace of its assetpurchases,investors have begun adjusting to a world without ultra-cheap money.

　　從五月份以來，當(dāng)美聯(lián)儲首次表明會放慢其資產(chǎn)收購的進程時，投資者已經(jīng)開始適應(yīng)沒有超低息政策的世界。

　　There has been a great withdrawal of funds from emerging markets, where mostcurrencies have fallen by 5-15% against the dollar in the past three months.

　　大量資金從新興市場撤出，這些市場過去的三個月盧比對美元匯率下降了5-15%。

　　Bond yields have risen from Brazil to Thailand.

　　債券收益從巴西上升到了泰國水平。

　　Some governments have intervened.

　　一些政府介入了。

　　On July 11th Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate to bolster its currency.

　　7月11日，印度尼西亞提升了其基準(zhǔn)利率來加強貨幣。

　　On August 21st its president said he would soon announce further measures to ensurestability.

　　8月21日，印尼總統(tǒng)表明不久就會宣布進一步的措施來確保經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)定。

　　India, Asia s third-biggest economy, is more vulnerable than most, however.

　　印度，亞洲第三大經(jīng)濟，卻比大多數(shù)國家更脆弱。

　　Economic news has disappointed for two years, with growth falling to 4-5%, half the rateseen during the 2003-08 boom.

　　經(jīng)濟資訊讓人們失望了兩年了，經(jīng)濟增長率降到4-5%，其中一半的經(jīng)濟增長率還是在2003-08年經(jīng)濟蓬勃時期發(fā)展起來的。

　　It may fall further.

　　經(jīng)濟增長率還會進一步下跌。

　　Consumer-price inflation remains stubborn at 10%.

　　消費物價上漲仍保持在10%。

　　A drive by Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, to push through a package ofreforms and free big industrial projects from red tape has not worked.

　　由財務(wù)部長帕拉尼亞潘奇丹巴南為從繁文縟節(jié)中通過一系列改革和免費的大型工業(yè)項目而發(fā)起的運動還沒有效果。

　　An election is due by May 2023, adding to uncertainty.

　　選舉在2023年5月，也增加了不確定性。

　　India s dependence on foreign capital is also high and has risen sharply.

　　印度對外資的依賴程度也很高并且上升很迅速。

　　The current-account deficit soared to almost 7% of GDP at the end of 2023, although it isexpected to be 4-5% this year.

　　往來賬戶逆差2023年底急升至將近GDP的7%，雖然今年預(yù)期逆差是4-5%。

　　External borrowing has not risen by much relative to GDPthe ratio stands at 21%todaybut debt has become more short-term, and therefore riskier.

　　外債相對于GDP沒有上升很多現(xiàn)在比例在21%但是債務(wù)更多是短期的，因此更危險。

　　Total financing needs are $250 billion over the next year.

　　財政需求總額下一年是2.5億美元。

　　India s reserves are $279 billion, giving a coverage ratio of 1.1 times.

　　印度的儲備是2.79億，是償還能力系數(shù)的1.1倍。

　　That has fallen sharply from over three times in 2007-08 and leaves India looking weakerthan many of its peers.

　　2007-08這個儲備下降了3倍多，也使印度看起來比許多同樣的國家看起來更弱。

　　It is therefore vital that foreign equity investors stay put.

　　因此，外資股權(quán)投資者留在原處很重要。

　　They own perhaps $200 billion of shares at current prices.

　　按現(xiàn)時價格計算，他們可能擁有2億美元的股份。

　　They have sold only about $3 billion since May, but if they head for the exit India would haveno defence.

　　自從五月份以來，他們只賣了大約3百萬股份，但是如果他們撤出，印度將失去所有的防御。

　　This is not a repeat of 1991.

　　這不是1991年的一種重復(fù)。

　　When India last had a crisis Boris Yeltsin was about to stand on a tank in Moscow and Nirvanawas hitting the big time.

　　當(dāng)印度最后一次經(jīng)濟危機的時候，鮑里斯葉利欽在莫斯科正要上臺，涅槃樂隊正出名。

　　Things have changed in financial terms, too.

　　融資條件也發(fā)生了變化。

　　Back then India had a fixed exchange rate, which the state almost bankrupted itself tryingto defendit had to fly gold to the Bank of England in return for a loan.

　　當(dāng)時，印度有固定匯率，這是即將破產(chǎn)的國家努力維護的，為了還貸款，它必須空運黃金給英格蘭銀行。