Investing in Ethiopia;Frontier mentality

　　投資埃塞俄比亞; 前沿思維;

　　A new fund attests to the country s allureand tothe value of connections;

　　新投資，國家吸引力與關(guān)系網(wǎng)價(jià)值的有力證明;

　　Long benighted, Ethiopia is attracting attention for abetter reason. It has become Africa sfastest-growing non-energy economy .Investors have noticed. South Africa s largestconsumer-foods firm, Tiger Brands, expanded into Ethiopia last year with a big acquisition.Diageo and Heineken recently paid nearly $400m combined to acquire state breweries in thecountry.

　　埃塞俄比亞已經(jīng)成為非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長最快的無能源國家。這一點(diǎn)，投資者早就知道。西非最大的消費(fèi)食品公司，Tiger Brands,在去年進(jìn)行了一次大規(guī)模并購，進(jìn)軍到埃塞俄比亞。Diageo和Heineken最近聯(lián)合花費(fèi)4億美金收購了該國一個(gè)國營啤酒廠。

　　The latest proof came on May 9th, when Schulze Global Investments, an Americaninvestment firm and family office, announced that it had launched a $100m Ethiopia fund,the first private-equity fund focused exclusively on the country. Anchored by at least $15mfrom Britain s CDC, a government-owned provider of development finance, and $10m of thefamily s own money, the fund will invest in sectors from agribusiness and cement to healthcare and natural resources.

　　最新事件發(fā)生在5月9日，美國一家投資投資與家族財(cái)務(wù)管理公司，Schulze全球投資公司，宣布在埃塞俄比亞投資1億美金，這是第一筆專門針對埃塞俄比亞的私募基金。加上之前英國 CDC公司，一家政府所有的發(fā)展財(cái)務(wù)公司的至少1500萬美元投資，還有家族所有的1000萬美元，這些資金將用于農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)、水泥、衛(wèi)生保健和自然資源。

　　Investing in Ethiopia is not for the faint-hearted, however. With a projected national incomeof $38.5 billion this year, its population of 85m still ranks among the world s poorest. Thegovernment s big spending carries risks, including high inflation and heavy state borrowing that has shrunk the credit available to privatefirms. Much more borrowing and spending is planned, and needed. The heart of the Ethiopiancapital may be traversed by new concrete arteries and bridges, built by Italian and Chinesecontractors with Chinese loans. But the rest of Addis Ababa is a patchwork of dirt paths linedby corrugated-tin dwellings that are the capital s shantytowns and slums.

　　然而，投資埃塞俄比亞可不是為了慈善。雖然埃塞俄比亞今年國民收入為 385億美元，但按該國8500萬人口計(jì)算，它仍然位居世界最貧困國家之列。政府大幅消費(fèi)帶來了危機(jī)，包括高通脹。巨額的國家借債已讓國家信譽(yù)對私人企業(yè)縮水。更多的借債和花費(fèi)都在必要的計(jì)劃之中。從中國借錢、由意大利和中國建筑商建造的交通動脈和大橋，可能已經(jīng)改變了首都的中心。除此之外，亞的斯亞貝巴城全是一片片由雜亂骯臟的小道連接的棚戶貧民窟。

　　Poverty is pervasive, raising questions over how fast a consumer class will emerge.Agriculture is still a big source of national income, accounting for more than 40% of GDP andmore than 80% of employment. Almost all private businesses are small: family-ownedvendors and repair shops, the kind whose customers cannot suffer inflation for long. Creditis hard to come by for the unconnected. Only licensed exporters consistently benefit fromrepeated devaluations of the currency. To invest in Ethiopia is to invest in the frontier.

　　貧窮無處不在，到底有消費(fèi)者能力的階層能多快增長，這是個(gè)問題。農(nóng)業(yè)仍然是國家收入的一大來源，占據(jù)GDP的 40%，并促進(jìn)了80%的就業(yè)人口。幾乎所有的私人企業(yè)都是小企業(yè)：家族小販和維修店，這些人不可能在那么長的通脹經(jīng)濟(jì)中堅(jiān)持住。而沒有關(guān)系網(wǎng)的商家，也很難有信譽(yù)。只有擁有經(jīng)營執(zhí)照的出口商才能從不斷貶值的貨幣中穩(wěn)定獲利。投資埃塞俄比亞如同在投資在前線陣地。

　　That suits Gabriel Schulze, who runs SGI . He is thescion of an American frontier family. His great-great-grandfather, William Boyce Thompson,flirted with bankruptcy in the Old West and founded Newmont Mining, now a $23 billioncompany. Mr Schulze operates smoothly in Ethiopia because of connections built through hisfamily . In 2008 he established apermanent office in the capital, staffed by members of Ethiopia s class of returning exiles,including two daughters of former officials under the late emperor, Haile Selassie.

　　這種狀況正像經(jīng)營SGI的Gabriel Schulze。他是美國前線家族后裔。他的曾曾祖父，William Boyce Thompson，在老西部破產(chǎn)，后來成立了Newmont Mining，現(xiàn)在是一個(gè)資產(chǎn)230億的公司。Schulze先生在埃塞俄比亞經(jīng)營的很順利，因?yàn)樗募易宓年P(guān)系網(wǎng)。2008年，他在埃塞俄比亞首都成立了一個(gè)永久的辦公室，員工都是逃亡歸來的埃塞俄比亞人，包括末代皇帝Haile Selassie時(shí)期的前長官的女兒。

　　Connections are crucial. Ethiopia s doors are not all swung wide open to foreign investment,but rather opened selectively. The regime of Meles Zanawi, the prime minister, isideological and authoritarian: the ruling party and its allies won 99.6% of seats inparliament in the 2010 elections. Its labyrinthine bureaucracy is the bane of the smallestof private businesses. Mr Meles is working from a neo-Chinese blueprint, long on publicinvestment and state enterprise . Outsiders wanting to do business in Addis Ababa must forge good relations withMr Meles and his ministers.

　　這種關(guān)系網(wǎng)至關(guān)重要。埃塞俄比亞的大門向外國投資商敞開，但也是有選擇地敞開?？偫?Meles Zanawi是個(gè)獨(dú)裁主義者：統(tǒng)治黨和其聯(lián)盟黨在2010年大選中贏得99.6%的席位。它復(fù)雜的官僚機(jī)構(gòu)是小企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的致命毒藥。Meles先生很長時(shí)間都在公共投資與國營公司工作，是新中國人的代表。外界想在亞的斯亞貝巴做生意的人就必須與Meles先生和他的內(nèi)閣大臣們建立好關(guān)系。

　　Similarly, the larger, existing SGI investments in Ethiopiain a coffee-export business, acement plant and an oil firmare investments in the elite families who run them, withfamily and personal networks that extend back generations. The Bagersh brothers, ownersof the coffee business in SGI s portfolio, represent a third generation of coffee exporters.Tewodros Ashenafi, the founder of SouthWest Energy, an oil firm, is the great-grandson of aformer minister of war. Shonaid Jemmett-Page, chief operating officer of CDC, says that thisis the nature of investible companies in places like Addis Ababa. One of the problems in mostfrontier markets is there s generally a pretty small entrepreneurial class, she says.

　　同樣，更大的SGI投資項(xiàng)目，包括咖啡出口、水泥廠和石油公司，都是精英家族在經(jīng)營，擁有幾代的家族及個(gè)人關(guān)系網(wǎng)。擁有SGI咖啡貿(mào)易Bagersh兄弟已是咖啡出口商的第三代接班人。西南能源石油公司創(chuàng)始人 Tewodros Ashenafi是一位戰(zhàn)時(shí)部長的曾孫。CDC首席運(yùn)營官Shonaid Jemmett-Page說這是諸如亞的斯亞貝巴這樣投資地的特色，他說：大部分前沿市場都存在一個(gè)問題，就是一般創(chuàng)業(yè)階層非常小。

　　Some critics of Mr Meles nonetheless worry that he will give away the store toforeignersincluding bits of the country itself, they grumble, in the form of land farmed forexport, which has become a fast-growing business. At the Sheraton Addis , a returned exile who makesintroductions and brokers deals dismisses this notion with a story. A 19th-century emperoronce saw off foreign visitors who had perhaps overstayed their welcome. The emperor wassaid to have ordered the bottoms of their shoes to be checked carefully on the way out. Not acrumb of Ethiopia s soil was to go with them.

　　盡管如此，有些評論家也擔(dān)心 Meles會把生意都賣給外國人，包括這個(gè)國家本身，以土地收成形式的出口已成為一個(gè)快速增長的企業(yè)。而在Sheraton Addis的一個(gè)回國的逃亡者和經(jīng)紀(jì)人講了一個(gè)故事，否認(rèn)了這樣的看法。19世紀(jì)的國王在一次送別一隊(duì)外國游客時(shí)，讓他們仔細(xì)檢查鞋底，不允許他們帶走埃塞俄比亞一丁點(diǎn)的塵土。

　　Investing in Ethiopia;Frontier mentality

　　投資埃塞俄比亞; 前沿思維;

　　A new fund attests to the country s allureand tothe value of connections;

　　新投資，國家吸引力與關(guān)系網(wǎng)價(jià)值的有力證明;

　　Long benighted, Ethiopia is attracting attention for abetter reason. It has become Africa sfastest-growing non-energy economy .Investors have noticed. South Africa s largestconsumer-foods firm, Tiger Brands, expanded into Ethiopia last year with a big acquisition.Diageo and Heineken recently paid nearly $400m combined to acquire state breweries in thecountry.

　　埃塞俄比亞已經(jīng)成為非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長最快的無能源國家。這一點(diǎn)，投資者早就知道。西非最大的消費(fèi)食品公司，Tiger Brands,在去年進(jìn)行了一次大規(guī)模并購，進(jìn)軍到埃塞俄比亞。Diageo和Heineken最近聯(lián)合花費(fèi)4億美金收購了該國一個(gè)國營啤酒廠。

　　The latest proof came on May 9th, when Schulze Global Investments, an Americaninvestment firm and family office, announced that it had launched a $100m Ethiopia fund,the first private-equity fund focused exclusively on the country. Anchored by at least $15mfrom Britain s CDC, a government-owned provider of development finance, and $10m of thefamily s own money, the fund will invest in sectors from agribusiness and cement to healthcare and natural resources.

　　最新事件發(fā)生在5月9日，美國一家投資投資與家族財(cái)務(wù)管理公司，Schulze全球投資公司，宣布在埃塞俄比亞投資1億美金，這是第一筆專門針對埃塞俄比亞的私募基金。加上之前英國 CDC公司，一家政府所有的發(fā)展財(cái)務(wù)公司的至少1500萬美元投資，還有家族所有的1000萬美元，這些資金將用于農(nóng)業(yè)企業(yè)、水泥、衛(wèi)生保健和自然資源。

　　Investing in Ethiopia is not for the faint-hearted, however. With a projected national incomeof $38.5 billion this year, its population of 85m still ranks among the world s poorest. Thegovernment s big spending carries risks, including high inflation and heavy state borrowing that has shrunk the credit available to privatefirms. Much more borrowing and spending is planned, and needed. The heart of the Ethiopiancapital may be traversed by new concrete arteries and bridges, built by Italian and Chinesecontractors with Chinese loans. But the rest of Addis Ababa is a patchwork of dirt paths linedby corrugated-tin dwellings that are the capital s shantytowns and slums.

　　然而，投資埃塞俄比亞可不是為了慈善。雖然埃塞俄比亞今年國民收入為 385億美元，但按該國8500萬人口計(jì)算，它仍然位居世界最貧困國家之列。政府大幅消費(fèi)帶來了危機(jī)，包括高通脹。巨額的國家借債已讓國家信譽(yù)對私人企業(yè)縮水。更多的借債和花費(fèi)都在必要的計(jì)劃之中。從中國借錢、由意大利和中國建筑商建造的交通動脈和大橋，可能已經(jīng)改變了首都的中心。除此之外，亞的斯亞貝巴城全是一片片由雜亂骯臟的小道連接的棚戶貧民窟。

　　Poverty is pervasive, raising questions over how fast a consumer class will emerge.Agriculture is still a big source of national income, accounting for more than 40% of GDP andmore than 80% of employment. Almost all private businesses are small: family-ownedvendors and repair shops, the kind whose customers cannot suffer inflation for long. Creditis hard to come by for the unconnected. Only licensed exporters consistently benefit fromrepeated devaluations of the currency. To invest in Ethiopia is to invest in the frontier.

　　貧窮無處不在，到底有消費(fèi)者能力的階層能多快增長，這是個(gè)問題。農(nóng)業(yè)仍然是國家收入的一大來源，占據(jù)GDP的 40%，并促進(jìn)了80%的就業(yè)人口。幾乎所有的私人企業(yè)都是小企業(yè)：家族小販和維修店，這些人不可能在那么長的通脹經(jīng)濟(jì)中堅(jiān)持住。而沒有關(guān)系網(wǎng)的商家，也很難有信譽(yù)。只有擁有經(jīng)營執(zhí)照的出口商才能從不斷貶值的貨幣中穩(wěn)定獲利。投資埃塞俄比亞如同在投資在前線陣地。

　　That suits Gabriel Schulze, who runs SGI . He is thescion of an American frontier family. His great-great-grandfather, William Boyce Thompson,flirted with bankruptcy in the Old West and founded Newmont Mining, now a $23 billioncompany. Mr Schulze operates smoothly in Ethiopia because of connections built through hisfamily . In 2008 he established apermanent office in the capital, staffed by members of Ethiopia s class of returning exiles,including two daughters of former officials under the late emperor, Haile Selassie.

　　這種狀況正像經(jīng)營SGI的Gabriel Schulze。他是美國前線家族后裔。他的曾曾祖父，William Boyce Thompson，在老西部破產(chǎn)，后來成立了Newmont Mining，現(xiàn)在是一個(gè)資產(chǎn)230億的公司。Schulze先生在埃塞俄比亞經(jīng)營的很順利，因?yàn)樗募易宓年P(guān)系網(wǎng)。2008年，他在埃塞俄比亞首都成立了一個(gè)永久的辦公室，員工都是逃亡歸來的埃塞俄比亞人，包括末代皇帝Haile Selassie時(shí)期的前長官的女兒。

　　Connections are crucial. Ethiopia s doors are not all swung wide open to foreign investment,but rather opened selectively. The regime of Meles Zanawi, the prime minister, isideological and authoritarian: the ruling party and its allies won 99.6% of seats inparliament in the 2010 elections. Its labyrinthine bureaucracy is the bane of the smallestof private businesses. Mr Meles is working from a neo-Chinese blueprint, long on publicinvestment and state enterprise . Outsiders wanting to do business in Addis Ababa must forge good relations withMr Meles and his ministers.

　　這種關(guān)系網(wǎng)至關(guān)重要。埃塞俄比亞的大門向外國投資商敞開，但也是有選擇地敞開?？偫?Meles Zanawi是個(gè)獨(dú)裁主義者：統(tǒng)治黨和其聯(lián)盟黨在2010年大選中贏得99.6%的席位。它復(fù)雜的官僚機(jī)構(gòu)是小企業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的致命毒藥。Meles先生很長時(shí)間都在公共投資與國營公司工作，是新中國人的代表。外界想在亞的斯亞貝巴做生意的人就必須與Meles先生和他的內(nèi)閣大臣們建立好關(guān)系。

　　Similarly, the larger, existing SGI investments in Ethiopiain a coffee-export business, acement plant and an oil firmare investments in the elite families who run them, withfamily and personal networks that extend back generations. The Bagersh brothers, ownersof the coffee business in SGI s portfolio, represent a third generation of coffee exporters.Tewodros Ashenafi, the founder of SouthWest Energy, an oil firm, is the great-grandson of aformer minister of war. Shonaid Jemmett-Page, chief operating officer of CDC, says that thisis the nature of investible companies in places like Addis Ababa. One of the problems in mostfrontier markets is there s generally a pretty small entrepreneurial class, she says.

　　同樣，更大的SGI投資項(xiàng)目，包括咖啡出口、水泥廠和石油公司，都是精英家族在經(jīng)營，擁有幾代的家族及個(gè)人關(guān)系網(wǎng)。擁有SGI咖啡貿(mào)易Bagersh兄弟已是咖啡出口商的第三代接班人。西南能源石油公司創(chuàng)始人 Tewodros Ashenafi是一位戰(zhàn)時(shí)部長的曾孫。CDC首席運(yùn)營官Shonaid Jemmett-Page說這是諸如亞的斯亞貝巴這樣投資地的特色，他說：大部分前沿市場都存在一個(gè)問題，就是一般創(chuàng)業(yè)階層非常小。

　　Some critics of Mr Meles nonetheless worry that he will give away the store toforeignersincluding bits of the country itself, they grumble, in the form of land farmed forexport, which has become a fast-growing business. At the Sheraton Addis , a returned exile who makesintroductions and brokers deals dismisses this notion with a story. A 19th-century emperoronce saw off foreign visitors who had perhaps overstayed their welcome. The emperor wassaid to have ordered the bottoms of their shoes to be checked carefully on the way out. Not acrumb of Ethiopia s soil was to go with them.

　　盡管如此，有些評論家也擔(dān)心 Meles會把生意都賣給外國人，包括這個(gè)國家本身，以土地收成形式的出口已成為一個(gè)快速增長的企業(yè)。而在Sheraton Addis的一個(gè)回國的逃亡者和經(jīng)紀(jì)人講了一個(gè)故事，否認(rèn)了這樣的看法。19世紀(jì)的國王在一次送別一隊(duì)外國游客時(shí)，讓他們仔細(xì)檢查鞋底，不允許他們帶走埃塞俄比亞一丁點(diǎn)的塵土。