ndia s economy：Thefightback

　　印度經(jīng)濟：反攻

　　Undercurrents of optimism about reform, andsome fighting talk, in India;

　　在印度經(jīng)濟改革勢頭良好、但仍存靡靡質(zhì)疑之聲的背后;

　　After a storm-tossed six months for the economy,India s authorities are trying to get things back onan even keel. On June 25th the Reserve Bank ofIndia announced measures to try to stabilisethe rupee. It has lost a fifth of its value against thedollar in the past year , reflecting global woes but also a slowdown in India and adrying up of capital inflows. Its decline is widely seen in India as a bad thing, stokinginflation and hurting firms with foreign-currency debt.

　　在國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟度過了近六個月的風雨飄搖之后，印度政府開始著力如何將經(jīng)濟局勢趨于穩(wěn)定。6月25日，印度儲備銀行宣布了一系列措施，意圖穩(wěn)定盧比匯率。在過去的一年中，盧比對美元的匯率下挫近百分之二十，不僅反映出了全球經(jīng)濟之殤，還體現(xiàn)了印度本國經(jīng)濟增速放緩，進口資金枯竭的問題。這種下滑對印度來說普遍被視為不利因素，不僅通脹率隨之節(jié)節(jié)攀升，對于舉有外債的公司來說負擔也更為沉重。

　　India has long shied away from letting fickle foreigners buy government bonds, but the RBIthis week loosened the rules to tempt in sovereign-wealth funds and other long-terminvestors. It also slightly eased restrictions on Indian manufacturing and infrastructure firmsseeking funds abroad.

　　印度向來都對一些不靠譜的外資對國債的收購請求采取規(guī)避的態(tài)度，但印度央行此次則對政策實施寬松，希望能夠吸引到更多大筆的資金和長期投資意向人。一些從事制造業(yè)和基建工程的印度公司也在尋求外資助力的限制上得到了適度的放寬。

　　IKEA, a Swedish furniture chain, boosted morale by saying it would invest up to 1.5 billionEURO in Indiaalthough on closer inspection that sum was spread overmany years. Coca-Cola followed suit with the announcement of an additional 3 billionDollar in investment, taking the total earmarked for India by 2023 to 5 billion Dollar. Aratings agency proved oddly helpful, too: on June 25th Moody s signalled it would not followStandard and Poor s and Fitch, which have both warned of a possible downgrade of India tojunk status. Its rating, which hovers just within investment grade, remains stable, theagency said.

　　瑞典家居連鎖巨頭宜家公司宣布決定在印度投入15億歐元資金盡管這筆巨額投資被安排在數(shù)年時間里逐批投放，但也為當?shù)亟?jīng)濟的提振帶來了利好消息。可口可樂公司也緊隨其后，宣布將會追加30億美元撥入印度市場，到2023年時印度將接受總額達50億美元的投資。一家評級機構(gòu)也出乎意料地幫了個忙：本月25日，穆迪宣布其不會跟隨標普和惠譽之后，警告會將印度的信用評級降至垃圾級。穆迪確認，印度目前所擁有的投資級依然穩(wěn)定。

　　The impact of all this? Not much. The rupee is still near record lows. Yet there is a feelingthat a bleak picture may be improving slightly, mainly thanks to a government reshuffle.Pranab Mukherjee, the finance minister, left his position on June 26th to contest the largelyceremonial post of the presidency. Mr Mukherjee, who presented his first budget in 1982,has had a disastrous stint as finance minister this time round, pursuing controversial taxclaims against foreigners, including Vodafone; failing to tame the budget deficit; andchairing troubleshooting committees that often fired ordnance at India s own feet.

　　上述的這些到底能派上多大的用場呢?只能說收效甚微。盧比匯率目前仍在其歷史最低點附近徘徊，但隨著政府部門及領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的重新洗牌，也有預(yù)感認為慘淡的國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟形式也許可以得到些許好轉(zhuǎn)。印度財政部長普拉納布穆克吉在26日辭去了職務(wù)，并宣布將會參與下一屆總統(tǒng)競選的角逐。穆克吉部長在1982年初上任的時候第一次公布了他的財政預(yù)算，但就目前的經(jīng)濟狀況來看，他任職期間的所作所為早已過分拮據(jù)不合時宜。比如針對如沃達豐這樣的外資企業(yè)征稅、縮減預(yù)算赤字失敗、以及其領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的修正委員，最后往往被證明是搬起石頭砸自己的腳。

　　Responsibility for the finance ministry, for a time at least, has passed to Manmohan Singh,the prime minister. Although even less of a spring chickenat 79, compared with MrMukherjee s 76he has credentials as a reformer, having served as finance minister whenIndia unveiled its liberalisation in 1991.

　　有關(guān)執(zhí)掌國家財政大權(quán)的事宜，已經(jīng)在近幾年移交給了曼莫尼辛格總理。與76歲的穆克吉相比，已79歲高齡的辛格更欠年齡上的優(yōu)勢，但他曾在1991年時任財政部長，那時的印度正在經(jīng)歷一系列的經(jīng)濟自由化改革，可以說辛格對于這場變革也是功不可沒。

　　At the end of his career, the hope is that Mr Singh makes a stand and rams through budgetcuts and vital changes on tax and foreign investment. It could make a difference, says anofficial. He has a lot of credibility. It is an area that is close to his heart and his reputationwill be much more on the line The situation is tough so there is a limit to what can be done,but it is a mood-lifter. His party, Congress, which leads the ruling coalition and is run bySonia Gandhi, its hereditary chief, is lukewarm about making tough decisions. But thereare signs that it may have successfully wooed one or two smaller parties outside its presentcoalition, which may help it push tricky changes through parliament.

　　而辛格也被許多人寄望，能夠在執(zhí)政末期再加把力，促成預(yù)算削減和有關(guān)稅制與外資的改革上。局面一定會有所改變，一位官員預(yù)測到，他在這些議題上已經(jīng)積累了不少經(jīng)驗和功績，這是他的心之所向，但他的名譽也將會經(jīng)受更多考驗，很有可能晚節(jié)不保。目前形式仍然嚴峻，因此真正能夠落實的項目也十分有限。但不管怎么說，這是一種士氣上的鼓舞。而主導(dǎo)聯(lián)合政府、接任亡夫之位的領(lǐng)袖索尼婭甘地所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的印度國大黨及議會對做出這些艱難決定的態(tài)度不溫不火，但也有跡象顯示，一些小型聯(lián)合執(zhí)政外的在野黨則被這些議題吸引過來，幫助一些具有爭議的法案在議會中通過。

　　The promise of a push on reforms has been madeand brokenconsistently by thegovernment for years. With a busy electoral timetable up to general elections in 2023, it maybe harder to fulfil than ever. Still, others, stepping back from the hurly-burly, can see a silverlining in India s great wobble, particularly the fall in the currency. T.C.A. Ranganathan, thechairman of Exim Bank of India, which finances trade, says: The exchange rate has movedin our favour. I m fairly happy. He reckons a weaker rupee will help spur a long-awaitedboom in manufacturing. Kaushik Basu, the government s chief economic adviser, no slouchon the need for reform, agrees. A cheaper currency means India is getting an advantagefor our export sector. Perhaps, in time, that may prove more important than today sfirefighting.

　　印度政府在過去幾年中針對改革的承諾一直反口復(fù)舌，2023年的印度總統(tǒng)大選意味將會有更多的高層活動，屆時部分工作和議題將會更難開展。但仍然有人漸漸淡出唇槍舌劍，在印度如今經(jīng)濟局勢的劇烈震蕩，尤其是貨幣持續(xù)貶值的趨勢當中看到了希望。主管貿(mào)易注資的印度進出口銀行主席T.C.A 阮甘那桑說：我很高興看到盧比匯率正在朝我們希望的方向發(fā)展。他認為，盧比的持續(xù)疲軟可以幫助完成一次久盼未臨的制造業(yè)昌旺。一向?qū)?jīng)濟改革信誓旦旦的印度政府首席經(jīng)濟顧問巴素也認同這一觀點。廉價貨幣對印度的出口業(yè)來說可能是一種優(yōu)勢。時間會證明，這一切將會比現(xiàn)在的改革與保守派之爭更為至關(guān)重要。

　　ndia s economy：Thefightback

　　印度經(jīng)濟：反攻

　　Undercurrents of optimism about reform, andsome fighting talk, in India;

　　在印度經(jīng)濟改革勢頭良好、但仍存靡靡質(zhì)疑之聲的背后;

　　After a storm-tossed six months for the economy,India s authorities are trying to get things back onan even keel. On June 25th the Reserve Bank ofIndia announced measures to try to stabilisethe rupee. It has lost a fifth of its value against thedollar in the past year , reflecting global woes but also a slowdown in India and adrying up of capital inflows. Its decline is widely seen in India as a bad thing, stokinginflation and hurting firms with foreign-currency debt.

　　在國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟度過了近六個月的風雨飄搖之后，印度政府開始著力如何將經(jīng)濟局勢趨于穩(wěn)定。6月25日，印度儲備銀行宣布了一系列措施，意圖穩(wěn)定盧比匯率。在過去的一年中，盧比對美元的匯率下挫近百分之二十，不僅反映出了全球經(jīng)濟之殤，還體現(xiàn)了印度本國經(jīng)濟增速放緩，進口資金枯竭的問題。這種下滑對印度來說普遍被視為不利因素，不僅通脹率隨之節(jié)節(jié)攀升，對于舉有外債的公司來說負擔也更為沉重。

　　India has long shied away from letting fickle foreigners buy government bonds, but the RBIthis week loosened the rules to tempt in sovereign-wealth funds and other long-terminvestors. It also slightly eased restrictions on Indian manufacturing and infrastructure firmsseeking funds abroad.

　　印度向來都對一些不靠譜的外資對國債的收購請求采取規(guī)避的態(tài)度，但印度央行此次則對政策實施寬松，希望能夠吸引到更多大筆的資金和長期投資意向人。一些從事制造業(yè)和基建工程的印度公司也在尋求外資助力的限制上得到了適度的放寬。

　　IKEA, a Swedish furniture chain, boosted morale by saying it would invest up to 1.5 billionEURO in Indiaalthough on closer inspection that sum was spread overmany years. Coca-Cola followed suit with the announcement of an additional 3 billionDollar in investment, taking the total earmarked for India by 2023 to 5 billion Dollar. Aratings agency proved oddly helpful, too: on June 25th Moody s signalled it would not followStandard and Poor s and Fitch, which have both warned of a possible downgrade of India tojunk status. Its rating, which hovers just within investment grade, remains stable, theagency said.

　　瑞典家居連鎖巨頭宜家公司宣布決定在印度投入15億歐元資金盡管這筆巨額投資被安排在數(shù)年時間里逐批投放，但也為當?shù)亟?jīng)濟的提振帶來了利好消息。可口可樂公司也緊隨其后，宣布將會追加30億美元撥入印度市場，到2023年時印度將接受總額達50億美元的投資。一家評級機構(gòu)也出乎意料地幫了個忙：本月25日，穆迪宣布其不會跟隨標普和惠譽之后，警告會將印度的信用評級降至垃圾級。穆迪確認，印度目前所擁有的投資級依然穩(wěn)定。

　　The impact of all this? Not much. The rupee is still near record lows. Yet there is a feelingthat a bleak picture may be improving slightly, mainly thanks to a government reshuffle.Pranab Mukherjee, the finance minister, left his position on June 26th to contest the largelyceremonial post of the presidency. Mr Mukherjee, who presented his first budget in 1982,has had a disastrous stint as finance minister this time round, pursuing controversial taxclaims against foreigners, including Vodafone; failing to tame the budget deficit; andchairing troubleshooting committees that often fired ordnance at India s own feet.

　　上述的這些到底能派上多大的用場呢?只能說收效甚微。盧比匯率目前仍在其歷史最低點附近徘徊，但隨著政府部門及領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人的重新洗牌，也有預(yù)感認為慘淡的國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟形式也許可以得到些許好轉(zhuǎn)。印度財政部長普拉納布穆克吉在26日辭去了職務(wù)，并宣布將會參與下一屆總統(tǒng)競選的角逐。穆克吉部長在1982年初上任的時候第一次公布了他的財政預(yù)算，但就目前的經(jīng)濟狀況來看，他任職期間的所作所為早已過分拮據(jù)不合時宜。比如針對如沃達豐這樣的外資企業(yè)征稅、縮減預(yù)算赤字失敗、以及其領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的修正委員，最后往往被證明是搬起石頭砸自己的腳。

　　Responsibility for the finance ministry, for a time at least, has passed to Manmohan Singh,the prime minister. Although even less of a spring chickenat 79, compared with MrMukherjee s 76he has credentials as a reformer, having served as finance minister whenIndia unveiled its liberalisation in 1991.

　　有關(guān)執(zhí)掌國家財政大權(quán)的事宜，已經(jīng)在近幾年移交給了曼莫尼辛格總理。與76歲的穆克吉相比，已79歲高齡的辛格更欠年齡上的優(yōu)勢，但他曾在1991年時任財政部長，那時的印度正在經(jīng)歷一系列的經(jīng)濟自由化改革，可以說辛格對于這場變革也是功不可沒。

　　At the end of his career, the hope is that Mr Singh makes a stand and rams through budgetcuts and vital changes on tax and foreign investment. It could make a difference, says anofficial. He has a lot of credibility. It is an area that is close to his heart and his reputationwill be much more on the line The situation is tough so there is a limit to what can be done,but it is a mood-lifter. His party, Congress, which leads the ruling coalition and is run bySonia Gandhi, its hereditary chief, is lukewarm about making tough decisions. But thereare signs that it may have successfully wooed one or two smaller parties outside its presentcoalition, which may help it push tricky changes through parliament.

　　而辛格也被許多人寄望，能夠在執(zhí)政末期再加把力，促成預(yù)算削減和有關(guān)稅制與外資的改革上。局面一定會有所改變，一位官員預(yù)測到，他在這些議題上已經(jīng)積累了不少經(jīng)驗和功績，這是他的心之所向，但他的名譽也將會經(jīng)受更多考驗，很有可能晚節(jié)不保。目前形式仍然嚴峻，因此真正能夠落實的項目也十分有限。但不管怎么說，這是一種士氣上的鼓舞。而主導(dǎo)聯(lián)合政府、接任亡夫之位的領(lǐng)袖索尼婭甘地所領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的印度國大黨及議會對做出這些艱難決定的態(tài)度不溫不火，但也有跡象顯示，一些小型聯(lián)合執(zhí)政外的在野黨則被這些議題吸引過來，幫助一些具有爭議的法案在議會中通過。

　　The promise of a push on reforms has been madeand brokenconsistently by thegovernment for years. With a busy electoral timetable up to general elections in 2023, it maybe harder to fulfil than ever. Still, others, stepping back from the hurly-burly, can see a silverlining in India s great wobble, particularly the fall in the currency. T.C.A. Ranganathan, thechairman of Exim Bank of India, which finances trade, says: The exchange rate has movedin our favour. I m fairly happy. He reckons a weaker rupee will help spur a long-awaitedboom in manufacturing. Kaushik Basu, the government s chief economic adviser, no slouchon the need for reform, agrees. A cheaper currency means India is getting an advantagefor our export sector. Perhaps, in time, that may prove more important than today sfirefighting.

　　印度政府在過去幾年中針對改革的承諾一直反口復(fù)舌，2023年的印度總統(tǒng)大選意味將會有更多的高層活動，屆時部分工作和議題將會更難開展。但仍然有人漸漸淡出唇槍舌劍，在印度如今經(jīng)濟局勢的劇烈震蕩，尤其是貨幣持續(xù)貶值的趨勢當中看到了希望。主管貿(mào)易注資的印度進出口銀行主席T.C.A 阮甘那桑說：我很高興看到盧比匯率正在朝我們希望的方向發(fā)展。他認為，盧比的持續(xù)疲軟可以幫助完成一次久盼未臨的制造業(yè)昌旺。一向?qū)?jīng)濟改革信誓旦旦的印度政府首席經(jīng)濟顧問巴素也認同這一觀點。廉價貨幣對印度的出口業(yè)來說可能是一種優(yōu)勢。時間會證明，這一切將會比現(xiàn)在的改革與保守派之爭更為至關(guān)重要。