A FREIGHT train, its dozen cars loaded with coalcovered in a light dusting of snow, snaked throughthe narrow valley, sometimes following the two-lane highway and sometimes crossing it. The valleywas silent and snowy, and though it was two daysinto 2023 it could easily have been 1982, 1942 or1922: coal has been mined in Appalachia andcarried out by rail for well over a century.

　　一列貨運(yùn)火車(chē)裝載著十二車(chē)煤炭，煤炭上覆蓋著一層薄薄的白雪，火車(chē)迂回地行進(jìn)于狹窄的山谷之間，時(shí)而沿著這一條雙車(chē)道高速公路行駛，時(shí)而又穿過(guò)那一條。峽谷寂靜而多雪，盡管這已經(jīng)是進(jìn)入2023年以來(lái)的的第二天了，然而在阿帕拉契亞，這樣的一天也可以發(fā)生在1982年,1942年或者是1922年：一個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)，煤炭在這里挖掘，并不斷用火車(chē)運(yùn)走。

　　And by some measures, coal is still going strong. It provides more of Americas electricitythan any other fuel. Production has fallen off since 2008, but it remains high, as do prices, forwhich thank the developing worlds appetite. In Appalachia, coal remains a source of well-paid jobs in a region that needs them: for the first three quarters of 2011 employment in theAppalachian coal industry was at its highest level since 1997. And the Powder River Basin,which spans Wyoming and Montana, has become Americas major source of coal in the pastdecade, relieving overmined Kentucky and West Virginia. The Energy InformationAdministration reckons America has enough coal to meet current demand levels forthe next 200 years.

　　然而在某種程度上，煤炭業(yè)依舊很昌盛。較比其他的燃料，煤炭為美國(guó)提供了更多的電力資源。自2008年以來(lái)，煤炭產(chǎn)量逐漸減少，但仍能維持較高的生產(chǎn)量，而且價(jià)格也沒(méi)有大幅跌落，這都得益于發(fā)展中國(guó)家對(duì)于煤炭的廣泛需求。在阿帕拉契亞那些需要煤炭的地區(qū)，煤炭一直是高收入工作的主要在2011年的前三個(gè)季度，煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)狀況達(dá)到了其自 1997年以來(lái)的最高水準(zhǔn)。在過(guò)去十年里，橫跨懷俄明州和蒙大納的粉河盆地已經(jīng)成為了美國(guó)重要的煤炭來(lái)源，緩解了肯塔基州和西弗吉尼亞州的重度開(kāi)采。能源信息管理局則認(rèn)為，美國(guó)有足夠的煤炭來(lái)滿(mǎn)足其未來(lái)200年的需求。

　　But if the raw numbers look good, the trends tell a different story. Regulatory uncertaintyand the emergence of alternative fuel sources will probablymake Americas future far less coal-reliant than its past. In 2000 America got 52% of itselectricity from coal; in 2010 that number was 45%. Robust as exports are, they account forless than one-tenth of American mined coal; exports cannot pick up the slack if Americastaste for coal declines. Appalachian coal production peaked in the early 1990s; the EIAforecasts a decline for the next three years, followed by two decades of low-level stability.Increased employment and declining productivity suggest that Appalachian coal is gettingharder to find.

　　但如果原始數(shù)據(jù)前景看好，那么未來(lái)趨勢(shì)則另當(dāng)別論。管理規(guī)章的不確定性和可替代燃料能源的出現(xiàn)可能會(huì)使美國(guó)不再會(huì)像過(guò)去一樣依賴(lài)于煤炭資源。2000年美國(guó)52%的電力資源來(lái)自煤炭;2010年這一數(shù)字是45%。盡管出口很強(qiáng)勁，出口的煤炭量不到美國(guó)開(kāi)采煤炭量的十分之一;然而如果美國(guó)自身對(duì)于煤炭的需求量逐漸減少，對(duì)外出口也不會(huì)緩解這一蕭條景象。阿帕拉契亞的煤炭產(chǎn)量在20世紀(jì)90年代初達(dá)到頂峰; 美國(guó)能源信息管理局預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)三年煤產(chǎn)量會(huì)減少，之后會(huì)迎來(lái)二十年的低水平穩(wěn)定期。就業(yè)增加，生產(chǎn)率降低，預(yù)示著阿帕拉契亞的煤炭會(huì)越來(lái)越難開(kāi)采。

　　Toughening regulation has an effect, too. Coal-fired power plants are the source of morethan one-third of greenhouse-gas emissions in America. Last July the EnvironmentalProtection Agency issued a rule that requires 28 states to reduce the amount of sulphurdioxide and nitrogen oxide they emit; in December came another, reducing the amount ofmercury and other toxic air pollutants that power plants can puff out.

　　加強(qiáng)管理也具有一定的效用。美國(guó)三分之一以上的溫室氣體排放來(lái)自燃煤發(fā)電廠。去年七月，環(huán)境保護(hù)局發(fā)表了一項(xiàng)規(guī)章，要求28個(gè)州減少二氧化硫和氮氧化物的排放;在接下來(lái)的十二月份，又要求發(fā)電廠減少汞和其他有毒空氣污染物的排放。

　　Many plants have already made the necessary upgrades and retrofits; around 53% ofAmericas coal-fired capacity comes from units fitted with scrubbers. But others, particularlyolder plants, will have to decide whether such expensive upgrades are worth doing at all.Most of Americas coal-fired capacity comes from plants at least 30 years old, and as muchas 14% of existing coal-fired plants, accounting for 4% of Americas generation capacity, willhave to be retired in the next five to eight years. Energy providers face a stark choice. Theycan fight these regulations in court . They can retrofit old plants: plentyhave done that, too. Or they can build new plantsin which case, far more are choosingplants that burn natural gas or use renewables rather than coal.

　　許多工廠已經(jīng)做了必要的升級(jí)和改進(jìn);大約53%的美國(guó)燃煤生產(chǎn)力來(lái)自裝有洗滌器的裝置。但是其他的工廠，尤其是一些歷史更久遠(yuǎn)的工廠，必須得決定這樣昂貴的升級(jí)到底值不值。大多數(shù)的美國(guó)燃煤生產(chǎn)力來(lái)自于30年余久的工廠，這樣的工廠占現(xiàn)有燃煤工廠的14%，發(fā)電量占美國(guó)發(fā)電總量的的4%，然而這些工廠在接下來(lái)的5到8年內(nèi)必須淘汰。能量供應(yīng)商面臨著一個(gè)嚴(yán)峻的抉擇。他們可以上訴公堂，與這些規(guī)章條例作斗爭(zhēng)。他們也可以改進(jìn)這些工廠：很多人也已經(jīng)這么做了。或者他們可以建造新的工廠 在這種情況下，更多人會(huì)選擇燒天然氣或使用可再生能源，而不是煤炭。

　　A FREIGHT train, its dozen cars loaded with coalcovered in a light dusting of snow, snaked throughthe narrow valley, sometimes following the two-lane highway and sometimes crossing it. The valleywas silent and snowy, and though it was two daysinto 2023 it could easily have been 1982, 1942 or1922: coal has been mined in Appalachia andcarried out by rail for well over a century.

　　一列貨運(yùn)火車(chē)裝載著十二車(chē)煤炭，煤炭上覆蓋著一層薄薄的白雪，火車(chē)迂回地行進(jìn)于狹窄的山谷之間，時(shí)而沿著這一條雙車(chē)道高速公路行駛，時(shí)而又穿過(guò)那一條。峽谷寂靜而多雪，盡管這已經(jīng)是進(jìn)入2023年以來(lái)的的第二天了，然而在阿帕拉契亞，這樣的一天也可以發(fā)生在1982年,1942年或者是1922年：一個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)，煤炭在這里挖掘，并不斷用火車(chē)運(yùn)走。

　　And by some measures, coal is still going strong. It provides more of Americas electricitythan any other fuel. Production has fallen off since 2008, but it remains high, as do prices, forwhich thank the developing worlds appetite. In Appalachia, coal remains a source of well-paid jobs in a region that needs them: for the first three quarters of 2011 employment in theAppalachian coal industry was at its highest level since 1997. And the Powder River Basin,which spans Wyoming and Montana, has become Americas major source of coal in the pastdecade, relieving overmined Kentucky and West Virginia. The Energy InformationAdministration reckons America has enough coal to meet current demand levels forthe next 200 years.

　　然而在某種程度上，煤炭業(yè)依舊很昌盛。較比其他的燃料，煤炭為美國(guó)提供了更多的電力資源。自2008年以來(lái)，煤炭產(chǎn)量逐漸減少，但仍能維持較高的生產(chǎn)量，而且價(jià)格也沒(méi)有大幅跌落，這都得益于發(fā)展中國(guó)家對(duì)于煤炭的廣泛需求。在阿帕拉契亞那些需要煤炭的地區(qū)，煤炭一直是高收入工作的主要在2011年的前三個(gè)季度，煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)狀況達(dá)到了其自 1997年以來(lái)的最高水準(zhǔn)。在過(guò)去十年里，橫跨懷俄明州和蒙大納的粉河盆地已經(jīng)成為了美國(guó)重要的煤炭來(lái)源，緩解了肯塔基州和西弗吉尼亞州的重度開(kāi)采。能源信息管理局則認(rèn)為，美國(guó)有足夠的煤炭來(lái)滿(mǎn)足其未來(lái)200年的需求。

　　But if the raw numbers look good, the trends tell a different story. Regulatory uncertaintyand the emergence of alternative fuel sources will probablymake Americas future far less coal-reliant than its past. In 2000 America got 52% of itselectricity from coal; in 2010 that number was 45%. Robust as exports are, they account forless than one-tenth of American mined coal; exports cannot pick up the slack if Americastaste for coal declines. Appalachian coal production peaked in the early 1990s; the EIAforecasts a decline for the next three years, followed by two decades of low-level stability.Increased employment and declining productivity suggest that Appalachian coal is gettingharder to find.

　　但如果原始數(shù)據(jù)前景看好，那么未來(lái)趨勢(shì)則另當(dāng)別論。管理規(guī)章的不確定性和可替代燃料能源的出現(xiàn)可能會(huì)使美國(guó)不再會(huì)像過(guò)去一樣依賴(lài)于煤炭資源。2000年美國(guó)52%的電力資源來(lái)自煤炭;2010年這一數(shù)字是45%。盡管出口很強(qiáng)勁，出口的煤炭量不到美國(guó)開(kāi)采煤炭量的十分之一;然而如果美國(guó)自身對(duì)于煤炭的需求量逐漸減少，對(duì)外出口也不會(huì)緩解這一蕭條景象。阿帕拉契亞的煤炭產(chǎn)量在20世紀(jì)90年代初達(dá)到頂峰; 美國(guó)能源信息管理局預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)三年煤產(chǎn)量會(huì)減少，之后會(huì)迎來(lái)二十年的低水平穩(wěn)定期。就業(yè)增加，生產(chǎn)率降低，預(yù)示著阿帕拉契亞的煤炭會(huì)越來(lái)越難開(kāi)采。

　　Toughening regulation has an effect, too. Coal-fired power plants are the source of morethan one-third of greenhouse-gas emissions in America. Last July the EnvironmentalProtection Agency issued a rule that requires 28 states to reduce the amount of sulphurdioxide and nitrogen oxide they emit; in December came another, reducing the amount ofmercury and other toxic air pollutants that power plants can puff out.

　　加強(qiáng)管理也具有一定的效用。美國(guó)三分之一以上的溫室氣體排放來(lái)自燃煤發(fā)電廠。去年七月，環(huán)境保護(hù)局發(fā)表了一項(xiàng)規(guī)章，要求28個(gè)州減少二氧化硫和氮氧化物的排放;在接下來(lái)的十二月份，又要求發(fā)電廠減少汞和其他有毒空氣污染物的排放。

　　Many plants have already made the necessary upgrades and retrofits; around 53% ofAmericas coal-fired capacity comes from units fitted with scrubbers. But others, particularlyolder plants, will have to decide whether such expensive upgrades are worth doing at all.Most of Americas coal-fired capacity comes from plants at least 30 years old, and as muchas 14% of existing coal-fired plants, accounting for 4% of Americas generation capacity, willhave to be retired in the next five to eight years. Energy providers face a stark choice. Theycan fight these regulations in court . They can retrofit old plants: plentyhave done that, too. Or they can build new plantsin which case, far more are choosingplants that burn natural gas or use renewables rather than coal.

　　許多工廠已經(jīng)做了必要的升級(jí)和改進(jìn);大約53%的美國(guó)燃煤生產(chǎn)力來(lái)自裝有洗滌器的裝置。但是其他的工廠，尤其是一些歷史更久遠(yuǎn)的工廠，必須得決定這樣昂貴的升級(jí)到底值不值。大多數(shù)的美國(guó)燃煤生產(chǎn)力來(lái)自于30年余久的工廠，這樣的工廠占現(xiàn)有燃煤工廠的14%，發(fā)電量占美國(guó)發(fā)電總量的的4%，然而這些工廠在接下來(lái)的5到8年內(nèi)必須淘汰。能量供應(yīng)商面臨著一個(gè)嚴(yán)峻的抉擇。他們可以上訴公堂，與這些規(guī)章條例作斗爭(zhēng)。他們也可以改進(jìn)這些工廠：很多人也已經(jīng)這么做了。或者他們可以建造新的工廠 在這種情況下，更多人會(huì)選擇燒天然氣或使用可再生能源，而不是煤炭。