Climate and the solar cycle

　　氣候和太陽圈

　　Chilling out in the winter sun

　　在冬日的陽光中發冷

　　Stratospheric changes can lead to nasty cold snaps

　　平流層的變化能引發討人厭的寒流

　　THOSE unconvinced-and those seeking to unconvince others-of the reality of man-madeglobal warming often point to the changeable behaviour of the sun as an alternativehypothesis.

　　不相信全球變暖是人為因素造成的和那些企圖讓別人不相信的人常常會將太陽的易變表現作為假設進行選擇。

　　A new study showing how the severity of winters in Europe, and warming in the Arctic, mightbe linked to changes in solar activity might seem to add to this case.

　　一項新的研究正在致力于研究歐洲的嚴冬和日漸變暖的北極圈與太陽的變化活動可能的關聯，似乎是為了證明此觀點。

　　In itself, it does not, for the heat in question is being redistributed, notretained.

　　實則不然，因為受人質疑的太陽熱能一直在重新分布，而不是保持不變的。

　　But it does point to two other lessons about climate change: that hard data on the factorswhich affect it are sometimes difficult to come by; and that computer models of the climatecan be quite impressive tools for working out what is going on.

　　但這項研究卻讓人們從氣候變化中學到了其他兩點：影響因子的數據有時候很難得到;氣候的電腦模型能夠模擬出現在的氣候狀況，讓人印象深刻。

　　The sun s activity waxes and wanes on an 11-year cycle, and over this cycle the amount ofultraviolet light the sun emits changes a lot more than does the total amount of energy.

　　太陽的活動周期是11年，在此周期內太陽散發出的紫外線總量的變化比太陽能總量的變化要大的多。

　　The stratosphere, the part of the Earth s atmosphere which does most to absorb UV, mightthus be expected to be particularly sensitive to the cycle.

　　吸收大部分紫外線的平流層?地球大氣圈的一部分，在此周期內可能會變得異常敏感。

　　In a paper just published in Nature Geoscience, Sarah Ineson of Britain s Meteorological Officeand her colleagues compared the way that the Met Office s new and putatively improvedclimate model dealt with winters at times of high UV and at times of low UV, using data onthe amount of ultraviolet the sun gives off that were collected by a satellite called SORCE.

　　剛剛在《自然-地球科學》雜志上發表的一篇論文中，英國氣象辦公室的沙哈.伊內森和她的同事用該氣象辦公室公認的新型氣候改進模型，對其在冬天紀錄的高紫外線和低紫外線數據進行比較，這些數據是由一架名叫SORCE的衛星收集太陽散發的紫外線量獲得的。

　　Dr Ineson found that at low UV levels the stratosphere in the tropics was cooler, becausethere was less UV for it to absorb, which meant the difference in temperature between thetropical stratosphere and the polar stratosphere shrank.

　　伊內森博士發現熱帶地區平流層中的紫外線含量低，因而就更涼爽，因為那里沒有足夠的紫外線可以吸收，也就意味著熱帶地區平流層的氣溫和極地地區平流層的氣溫差異很大。

　　That changed the way the atmosphere circulated,

　　這種情況改變了大氣環流的方式。

　　and as those changes spread down into the lower atmosphere they made it easier for coldsurface air from the Arctic to come south in winter, freezing chunks of northern Europe.

　　冬天，當大氣環流變化散布到低一點的大氣中時，自北極圈表層而來的冷空氣很容易就能傳播到南方，讓北歐的大部分國家處于冰凍之中。

　　These conditions looked similar to those seen in the past two cold European winters-whichoccurred at a time of low solar activity.

　　這些狀況和過去的兩次發生在歐洲的嚴冬很相似那兩次嚴冬都發生在太陽活動頻率很低的時候。

　　The Arctic itself, in models and in real life, was warmer than usual, as were parts of Canada.

　　而北極圈本身，無論是作為模型還是實際情況，都比平常要溫暖，加拿大部分地區也是如此。

　　In contrast, northern Europe, swathes of Russia and bits of America were colder.

　　臨近俄羅斯和美國的北歐則相反，顯得比平時更冰冷。

　　Why had this solar effect not been seen before?

　　為什么我們之前沒有看出這種日光影響呢?

　　To some extent it had.

　　某種程度上，我們看到過。

　　Earlier modelling of a period of prolonged low solar activity in the 17th and 18th centuriesshowed similar patterns.

　　更早以前，對17、18世紀時太陽活動持續不活躍的那段時期所做的模型也體現了同樣的結構。

　　That models of today s climate had not was,

　　但如今的氣候模型卻沒有體現出來。

　　in part, because they used much lower estimates of the amount of UV variation over thesolar cycle than those derived from the SORCE data, the most precise to be taken from asatellite looking at the sun.

　　部分原因是因為對太陽圈內紫外線變化量的估計比直接從SORCE中得來的要低的多。SORCE觀察太陽所得出的數據，比其他的衛星更為精準。

　　It may just be that working with more realistic data made the model work better.

　　那么用更為接近實際的數據做模型或許更為可靠。

　　This does not mean the question is settled.

　　這并不意味著問題解決了。

　　Some scientists suspect the SORCE data may be exaggerating the sun s variability, and ifthey were revised the link might go away.

　　一些科學家懷疑SORCE的數據可能夸大了太陽的變化性，如果數據一經修改，兩者的關聯可能也不復存在了。

　　There are other theories around seeking to explain the recent cold winters, too.

　　還有其他一些理論也正尋求解釋最近冷冬的原因。

　　Improving predictions of future cold winters on the basis of this work, as the researchers saythey would like to do, may thus prove hard.

　　研究員們說，他們想通過這些理論模型來改進預測未來冷冬的準確性，但看來并不那么容易。

　　But though global warming has made people look to models as predictors of the future, thatis not their strongest suit.

　　盡管全球變暖讓人們將模型視為未來的預言者，這卻不是模型的最大作用。

　　Something they can do much better is look at what happens when a variable such as UV isaltered, compare that with the data, and thus gain insight into the mechanisms by whichclimate works.

　　它們還有更大的作用，它們能觀察當一個變量改變時會發生什么，并與數據作比較，從而洞察出氣候變化的機制。

　　This new research provides a good example of what such an approach can achieve.

　　這項新的研究為這種方法所能取得的結果提供了好的例子。

　　Climate and the solar cycle

　　氣候和太陽圈

　　Chilling out in the winter sun

　　在冬日的陽光中發冷

　　Stratospheric changes can lead to nasty cold snaps

　　平流層的變化能引發討人厭的寒流

　　THOSE unconvinced-and those seeking to unconvince others-of the reality of man-madeglobal warming often point to the changeable behaviour of the sun as an alternativehypothesis.

　　不相信全球變暖是人為因素造成的和那些企圖讓別人不相信的人常常會將太陽的易變表現作為假設進行選擇。

　　A new study showing how the severity of winters in Europe, and warming in the Arctic, mightbe linked to changes in solar activity might seem to add to this case.

　　一項新的研究正在致力于研究歐洲的嚴冬和日漸變暖的北極圈與太陽的變化活動可能的關聯，似乎是為了證明此觀點。

　　In itself, it does not, for the heat in question is being redistributed, notretained.

　　實則不然，因為受人質疑的太陽熱能一直在重新分布，而不是保持不變的。

　　But it does point to two other lessons about climate change: that hard data on the factorswhich affect it are sometimes difficult to come by; and that computer models of the climatecan be quite impressive tools for working out what is going on.

　　但這項研究卻讓人們從氣候變化中學到了其他兩點：影響因子的數據有時候很難得到;氣候的電腦模型能夠模擬出現在的氣候狀況，讓人印象深刻。

　　The sun s activity waxes and wanes on an 11-year cycle, and over this cycle the amount ofultraviolet light the sun emits changes a lot more than does the total amount of energy.

　　太陽的活動周期是11年，在此周期內太陽散發出的紫外線總量的變化比太陽能總量的變化要大的多。

　　The stratosphere, the part of the Earth s atmosphere which does most to absorb UV, mightthus be expected to be particularly sensitive to the cycle.

　　吸收大部分紫外線的平流層?地球大氣圈的一部分，在此周期內可能會變得異常敏感。

　　In a paper just published in Nature Geoscience, Sarah Ineson of Britain s Meteorological Officeand her colleagues compared the way that the Met Office s new and putatively improvedclimate model dealt with winters at times of high UV and at times of low UV, using data onthe amount of ultraviolet the sun gives off that were collected by a satellite called SORCE.

　　剛剛在《自然-地球科學》雜志上發表的一篇論文中，英國氣象辦公室的沙哈.伊內森和她的同事用該氣象辦公室公認的新型氣候改進模型，對其在冬天紀錄的高紫外線和低紫外線數據進行比較，這些數據是由一架名叫SORCE的衛星收集太陽散發的紫外線量獲得的。

　　Dr Ineson found that at low UV levels the stratosphere in the tropics was cooler, becausethere was less UV for it to absorb, which meant the difference in temperature between thetropical stratosphere and the polar stratosphere shrank.

　　伊內森博士發現熱帶地區平流層中的紫外線含量低，因而就更涼爽，因為那里沒有足夠的紫外線可以吸收，也就意味著熱帶地區平流層的氣溫和極地地區平流層的氣溫差異很大。

　　That changed the way the atmosphere circulated,

　　這種情況改變了大氣環流的方式。

　　and as those changes spread down into the lower atmosphere they made it easier for coldsurface air from the Arctic to come south in winter, freezing chunks of northern Europe.

　　冬天，當大氣環流變化散布到低一點的大氣中時，自北極圈表層而來的冷空氣很容易就能傳播到南方，讓北歐的大部分國家處于冰凍之中。

　　These conditions looked similar to those seen in the past two cold European winters-whichoccurred at a time of low solar activity.

　　這些狀況和過去的兩次發生在歐洲的嚴冬很相似那兩次嚴冬都發生在太陽活動頻率很低的時候。

　　The Arctic itself, in models and in real life, was warmer than usual, as were parts of Canada.

　　而北極圈本身，無論是作為模型還是實際情況，都比平常要溫暖，加拿大部分地區也是如此。

　　In contrast, northern Europe, swathes of Russia and bits of America were colder.

　　臨近俄羅斯和美國的北歐則相反，顯得比平時更冰冷。

　　Why had this solar effect not been seen before?

　　為什么我們之前沒有看出這種日光影響呢?

　　To some extent it had.

　　某種程度上，我們看到過。

　　Earlier modelling of a period of prolonged low solar activity in the 17th and 18th centuriesshowed similar patterns.

　　更早以前，對17、18世紀時太陽活動持續不活躍的那段時期所做的模型也體現了同樣的結構。

　　That models of today s climate had not was,

　　但如今的氣候模型卻沒有體現出來。

　　in part, because they used much lower estimates of the amount of UV variation over thesolar cycle than those derived from the SORCE data, the most precise to be taken from asatellite looking at the sun.

　　部分原因是因為對太陽圈內紫外線變化量的估計比直接從SORCE中得來的要低的多。SORCE觀察太陽所得出的數據，比其他的衛星更為精準。

　　It may just be that working with more realistic data made the model work better.

　　那么用更為接近實際的數據做模型或許更為可靠。

　　This does not mean the question is settled.

　　這并不意味著問題解決了。

　　Some scientists suspect the SORCE data may be exaggerating the sun s variability, and ifthey were revised the link might go away.

　　一些科學家懷疑SORCE的數據可能夸大了太陽的變化性，如果數據一經修改，兩者的關聯可能也不復存在了。

　　There are other theories around seeking to explain the recent cold winters, too.

　　還有其他一些理論也正尋求解釋最近冷冬的原因。

　　Improving predictions of future cold winters on the basis of this work, as the researchers saythey would like to do, may thus prove hard.

　　研究員們說，他們想通過這些理論模型來改進預測未來冷冬的準確性，但看來并不那么容易。

　　But though global warming has made people look to models as predictors of the future, thatis not their strongest suit.

　　盡管全球變暖讓人們將模型視為未來的預言者，這卻不是模型的最大作用。

　　Something they can do much better is look at what happens when a variable such as UV isaltered, compare that with the data, and thus gain insight into the mechanisms by whichclimate works.

　　它們還有更大的作用，它們能觀察當一個變量改變時會發生什么，并與數據作比較，從而洞察出氣候變化的機制。

　　This new research provides a good example of what such an approach can achieve.

　　這項新的研究為這種方法所能取得的結果提供了好的例子。