The economy 美國經濟

　　RECOVERIES from financial crises are usually subdued, but Americas is starting to lookcomatose. On May 26th the government said GDP grew by an annualised 1.8% in the firstquarter, identical to its preliminary estimate. Economists had hoped for an upward revision.Worse, as signs of weakness accumulate, forecasters have trimmed estimates for thecurrent quarter from around 3.5% they were projecting a month ago to 2.7% or less now.

　　從金融危機中恢復過來通常是一個緩慢而艱難的過程，但美國的恢復進程似乎就要陷入休克。5月26日，政府說一季度GDP按年增長率來計算增長了1.8%，與初始估算相符。經濟學家們曾經希望實際情況可以更加樂觀。更糟糕的是，由于經濟疲軟的跡象累加，預測者從一開始就把對當前季度的預測從一個月前的3.5%左右將到了2.7%,現在可能會更少。

　　Last December an agreement between Barack Obama and the Republicans to extend GeorgeBushs tax cuts and enact new ones led to forecasts of 3% to 4% growth this year. But thenew consensus rate of 2.6%, for a recovery now two years old, is barely above Americaslong-term potential and scarcely enough to bring unemployment down. To be sure, the post-crisis imperative for banks and households to reduce their debt meant a V-shaped reboundwas never on the cards. Even so, this is a terrible performance.

　　去年12月，奧巴馬與共和黨達成協議延長小布什的稅收減免政策，并頒布了新的政策，這使得專家對今年經濟增長的預測達到3%-4%。但如今經濟恢復已經長達兩年之久，公認的增長率為2.6%。這一增長率僅僅略高于美國的長期潛能，但若想降低失業率，還是力道不足。當然，對于銀行以及家庭來說，后危機時代最重要的事即減少債務，這意味著經濟V型的回升幾乎不可能。即便是這樣，現在的狀況也算是糟糕的了。

　　Economists have found themselves repeatedly making excuses. First it was the snowstorms. Then it was Japans earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster which crimped the supply of parts to car assembly plants in America. Then, as the snow melted, floods ravaged Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, and tornadoes battered Alabama and Missouri. America has suffered five incidents of extreme weather this year, each inflicting at least $1 billion in damage.

　　經濟學家們發現自己不停的找借口。最開始是暴風雪。然后是日本的地震、臺風，還有影響供應美國汽車組裝工廠配件的核災難。后來，由于冰雪融化，洪水襲擊了阿肯色、密西西比、密蘇里、田納西，而且阿拉巴馬和密蘇里也遭遇龍卷風。美國今年已經經歷了5場極端天氣，每一場都會帶來至少10億美元的損失。

　　The economy 美國經濟

　　RECOVERIES from financial crises are usually subdued, but Americas is starting to lookcomatose. On May 26th the government said GDP grew by an annualised 1.8% in the firstquarter, identical to its preliminary estimate. Economists had hoped for an upward revision.Worse, as signs of weakness accumulate, forecasters have trimmed estimates for thecurrent quarter from around 3.5% they were projecting a month ago to 2.7% or less now.

　　從金融危機中恢復過來通常是一個緩慢而艱難的過程，但美國的恢復進程似乎就要陷入休克。5月26日，政府說一季度GDP按年增長率來計算增長了1.8%，與初始估算相符。經濟學家們曾經希望實際情況可以更加樂觀。更糟糕的是，由于經濟疲軟的跡象累加，預測者從一開始就把對當前季度的預測從一個月前的3.5%左右將到了2.7%,現在可能會更少。

　　Last December an agreement between Barack Obama and the Republicans to extend GeorgeBushs tax cuts and enact new ones led to forecasts of 3% to 4% growth this year. But thenew consensus rate of 2.6%, for a recovery now two years old, is barely above Americaslong-term potential and scarcely enough to bring unemployment down. To be sure, the post-crisis imperative for banks and households to reduce their debt meant a V-shaped reboundwas never on the cards. Even so, this is a terrible performance.

　　去年12月，奧巴馬與共和黨達成協議延長小布什的稅收減免政策，并頒布了新的政策，這使得專家對今年經濟增長的預測達到3%-4%。但如今經濟恢復已經長達兩年之久，公認的增長率為2.6%。這一增長率僅僅略高于美國的長期潛能，但若想降低失業率，還是力道不足。當然，對于銀行以及家庭來說，后危機時代最重要的事即減少債務，這意味著經濟V型的回升幾乎不可能。即便是這樣，現在的狀況也算是糟糕的了。

　　Economists have found themselves repeatedly making excuses. First it was the snowstorms. Then it was Japans earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster which crimped the supply of parts to car assembly plants in America. Then, as the snow melted, floods ravaged Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, and tornadoes battered Alabama and Missouri. America has suffered five incidents of extreme weather this year, each inflicting at least $1 billion in damage.

　　經濟學家們發現自己不停的找借口。最開始是暴風雪。然后是日本的地震、臺風，還有影響供應美國汽車組裝工廠配件的核災難。后來，由于冰雪融化，洪水襲擊了阿肯色、密西西比、密蘇里、田納西，而且阿拉巴馬和密蘇里也遭遇龍卷風。美國今年已經經歷了5場極端天氣，每一場都會帶來至少10億美元的損失。